Life kept me pretty busy until late Monday and Tuesday evenings and then I made the mistake of putting my head on the couch early Wednesday evening with the intent of watching the Rockets vs. Jazz before going to the No Worries Tavern and doing this week’s show. After a few possessions of the game, I ended up watching the back of my eyelids. With the week getting away, here is a blog version of Sports and Stuff That Matters. I’ll be back in the No Worries Tavern on Monday night with Travis Thayer for another episode so be sure and check that out.

NBA Playoffs – Chalkly East, Inconsistent Warriors, Red Hot Blazers, Nuggets-Spurs Going Deep

As expected, the top 4 seeds in the east have advanced, setting up what should be two great Eastern Conference Semifinal matchups with Milwaukee vs. Boston and Toronto vs. Phily. Their first round opponents were just terribly outmatched, despite Orlando and Brooklyn stealing game one wins. The Bucks sweep of Detroit was their first playoff series win since 2001 (Ray Allen, Sam Cassell, Michael Redd, “Big Dog” Robinson and company who went on to lose in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Allen Iverson-led 76ers). Brooklyn is the team that missed a great chance in game four to pull even in the series, but their shooters were firing blanks and Joel Embiid was way too much down the stretch. They proceeded to lay a total egg in game 5 on Tuesday as they already appeared to be in off-season mode.

The Pacers turned in one of the more competitive sweep series in recent memory, leading at halftime in three of the four games before posting an atrocious offensive quarter in either the third or the fourth three different times. The Celtics were resilient and good in closing time, something they will need to be all spring. That is four straight first round losses for the Pacers (Toronto in 7, Cleveland in 4, Cleveland in 7, Boston in 4). Nobody expected a post-season run this year after Victor Oladipo went down. The question for the Pacers is, what do they have to do (other than stay healthy) to push to the next level of success? Or are they stuck in that “competitive, but no threat to make a championship run” stage for the foreseeable future. Travis and I will talk about that on Monday night, including some possible free agent targets for the Pacers. One other thing we will talk about is which of the remaining 8 teams have an “alpha dog” that is good enough to take their team to a NBA title.

The east semis are set, but the west semis are not. Houston and Portland have advanced. If I would have told you that two series remain and one of them was Golden State, would you have believed me? I didn’t watch the game last night (LAC over Golden State in game 5), but certainly can’t fathom the Clippers winning this series. Two round one home losses for the champs, though? I never would have predicted that. We talked in March about can the Warriors “flip the switch?” So far, they haven’t consistently. Something tells me they will for the Rockets. We will have plenty of time to talk and write about Houston over the next two weeks (guys not named Harden stepping up will continue to be the key), but a quick note on Utah. Are they currently the Pacers of the east? Good team, and despite being capable of producing a top 4/5 seed, in reality are they miles away from threatening to breakthrough and win the west or the title? I think so. That’s a tough spot to be in in any pro league, especially the NBA where the parity and turnover at the top doesn’t seem to be as frequent as NFL or MLB.

The one series that was expected to be good and has been is Denver and San Antonio. Game 6 is tonight and despite the ugly game 5 loss, I expect the Spurs to bounce back, win a close one and send the young, over-achieving Nuggets home with game 7 pressure. It has been fun seeing some non-household names on each side (Derrick White, Torrey Craig for example), step up and play big roles.

The Thunder will leave this year’s playoffs as biggest disappointment. Russ Westbrook was really inefficient, and their role players looked like they didn’t belong on that stage (Paul George, after a game one dud, was pretty good). Don’t let that be the narrative though. Portland was awesome. Lillard and McCollum were terrific, Enes Kantner (mid-season pickup) was huge inside, Faruq-Amin was a tough matchup, and the Rip City crowd was great too. Portland has a great chance to get to the western conference finals.

NBA Round Two Predictions? Those are tough. I like Toronto and Golden State to advance the most. I will take Portland to get by the Denver/San Antonio winner. The series I am most torn about is Boston and Milwaukee. How will Boston guard Giannis? Al Horford spent the majority of the minutes on him in the regular season. Semi Ojeleye guarded him the second most and he is not in the rotation right now. My heart leans Boston, but then I made the mistake of doing some research. Milwaukee’s ability to score inside and keep other teams from scoring inside is eye-popping. The only time the Celtics beat the Bucks in the regular season, they hit a franchise record 24 three-pointers. My gut says Boston, the data says Milwaukee. I’ll predict a seven game series for now!

NFL DRAFT

Let’s take a look at the QB situation around the league and in this year’s draft, the Bengals and the Colts. Travis and I will look back and analyze who the winners and losers were next week, and what to expect out of the Bengals’ and Colts’ new additions in 2019.

It is an interesting QB draft class as there are lots of quality prospects, but there is some balance and parity amongst them. Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins meet the new generation run/pass quarterbacks for teams that like that type. There are several (Brett Rypien, Drew Lock, Jarrett Stidham, Will Grier, Ryan Finley, Jake Locker) traditional quarterbacks with lots of upside.

Who needs a quarterback?

Desperately need a quarterback – Washington and Miami

Could use a succession plan – New York Giants, Denver, New England (I know he is going to play til he is 45), and San Diego

Have a QB but lack long-term stability due to contract – Minnesota, Tennessee

A category all their own – Cincinnati (succession plan? replacement? new regime = new QB?)

Arizona picks first and they either don’t know what they are going to do or are doing a good job of playing it that way. The early consensus was Josh Rosen was trade bait and they would take Kyler Murray. That is still my prediction. That said, does drafting Murray mean you must trade Rosen? A two QB system has proven effective for many and Murray has the ability to be used on different parts of the field.

Many are predicting Miami, despite desperately needing a QB (that’s not their only hole) to stay away from a QB early and pick one of the many outstanding defensive players that will still be available, and then to take a QB in a later round.

As for the Bengals, offensive line and linebacker appear to be the biggest needs, but they have also scouted edge pass rushers heavily. I expect them to take a linebacker named Devin (White from LSU or Bush from Michigan) if available. If not available, I could see the Bengals going many different directions. Despite the constant question marks around Andy Dalton and a new head coach being on board (sometimes a new coaching regime, especially an offensive coach, can translate to a new QB regime), I would be surprised to see the Bengals draft a QB at #11. I also think there are expected to be plenty of offensive linemen available for the Bengals to draft between rounds 2 and 4. I expect the Bengals to go defense in round one.

The Colts don’t pick until number 26. It is a cliche, but expect them to pick the best available player. A #2 receiver is a big need for the Colts, but they did just sign Devin Funchess from Carolina, so I don’t expect a receiver to be picked in the first round (Ole Miss duo of AJ Brown and DK Metcalf are expected to be available). Defensive line is another need and either of Clemson’s phenomenal front men, Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence, would be good gets here, as would Notre Dame’s Jerry Tillery.

SEC fans might love the beginning of this draft. Those with SEC fatigue, not so much. Expect a lot of SEC names to be called early!

Enjoy the draft and Travis and I will look back on it next week.

MLB

Reds found some wins (still can’t hit, but can pitch), Houston is rolling against everyone not named the Rangers, the Cardinals are getting their bats going, the Cubs and Red Sox are still under-performing, the Yankees are surviving with a AAA team due to injuries. Is it too early for a triple crown tracker or .400 chase for Cody Bellinger? Probably so, but his hot start is now turning into a great month. Christian Yelich has passed him in the home run race, though. I’ll stop – it’s still April. No chasing history segments yet, but I do enjoy those.

College Hoops

Virginia and Gonzaga have been depleted with early NBA entries, Duke and UNC landed some big names on the recruiting trail, NKU got their new coach (Darrin Horn) and Norse fans are and should be thrilled. Cassius Winston is back for Sparty, as is Udkoa Azubike for Kansas.

Appreciate This

Thanks to friend, Reds Fan and future SASTM co-host, Andy Baudendistel, for this impressive statistic. Joey Votto popped out to first base last week. It was the first time he has ever done that in his career which consists of more than 1,500 games, more than 6,800 at bats and more than 27,000 pitches. He only has eight infield popups since 2010.

Gotta Get There

I was going to go with Cincinnati area seafood restaurants this week, Nicole and I’s favorite genre of food. We have hit some of the big name ones (McCormich and Schmitt’s, Mitchell’s Fish Market, the Chart House), but one that is worth the trip and maybe a bit under the radar is The Pelican’s Reef. Located on the east side (Beechmont Avenue), it doesn’t boast a dramatic appearance, but has great food and that island vacation environment. It has a well rounded and traditional menu, including fried soft-shell crab, something I’ve been unable to locate consistently in the tri-state. The environment and menu are both kid friendly (yes, they have grilled cheese sandwiches, parents). If you are in the tri-state and enjoy a good seafood meal out, give The Pelican’s Reef a shot.

You Know What I Miss

Like a lot of sports fans, I miss Craig Sager, especially this time of year. Maybe it was the suits, maybe it was his professionalism, maybe it was his dependability (I was watching him do NBA sideline interviews when I was a kid and an adult). In reality, it was the combination. The suits were great, but somehow he managed to pull that off as just part of who he was and not as a total attention-grabbing show stealer. You could tell the coaches on the sidelines and players after the game truly liked and respected him. He had a self-deprecating humor to himself when he interacted with his colleagues. He was great at his job and entrenched himself as part of the NBA playoff fabric for my generation.

Non-Sports For the Week

I’ll save most of it for next week’s show, but here are some eye-popping numbers from around the country last week.

A North Carolina man is in the Guinness Book of World Records for picking 228 four-leaf clovers in two hours.

A 98 pound grouper and a 757 pound swordfish were caught in Florida.

There’s a new popular event in College Station, TX (great town). “Wine with Alpacas” was a sell-out and a hit, and there will be more opportunities.

Lastly, if you want to get paid $18,500 to lay in bed for two straight months, check the NASA website for that opportunity. There are some catches!

Most fans know that the first round of the NBA Playoffs is typically very “chalk-heavy,” with favorites advancing most of the time. That is why when there is an upset (outside of the 4-5 series), it’s a big deal. This year, on paper, appears to be no different, but after this weekend’s game 1’s in all eight series, there is a chance that a couple more top seeded teams are on upset alert than normal.

After letting game 1’s play out this weekend, here are the round one upset alert rankings, as I see them.

NOT HAPPENING

West – (1) Warriors vs. (8) Clippers

East – (1) Bucks vs. (8) Pistons

Doc Rivers has done a great job with this Clippers team, but beating the back-to-back champs four times in two weeks isn’t going to happen with this Clippers team as currently assembled. The Warriors’ greatness and the Patrick Beverly/Kevin Durant drama will keep people tuning in though.

The Bucks are way too much for the Pistons (even with Blake Griffin, especially without). The Bucks have been a complete team all year and are favorites to win the east. Going the distance in the east won’t be a cakewalk, but getting by Detroit should be.

VERY LONG SHOT

East – (4) Celtics vs. (5) Pacers

Perhaps if I wasn’t an Indiana guy and a Pacers fan, I would have this in the “NOT HAPPENING” category. That said, I can’t totally discount the chances of a Pacers team that has over-achieved all year, is usually really good on defense and plays exceptionally hard and un-selfish. That said, the Celtics have too much talent and star-power (not to mention a great coach) and the Pacers are a little out-matched especially without Victor Oladipo. If Boston defends like they did in the second half of game one, this series ends quickly.

DON’T GET YOUR HOPES UP

East – (2) Raptors vs. (7) Magic

I do know who won game one. The Magic played really well and got a career game from journey man DJ Augustin. Kyle Lowry had 0 for the Raptors, they didn’t get their usual bench production, and still had a chance at the end. DJ Augustin was slowed down after Toronto switched Danny Green and/or Kawhi Leonard on him (Augustin did much of his damage in the first half). When you combine that with the fact that Orlando did win 22 of their last 31, is solid defensively, and Toronto is an unbelievably bad 2-14 all-time in playoff game 1’s, you had the recipe for a game one upset. This series might go deeper than a lot of people predicted (I think Orlando wins another game for sure), but Toronto advanced.

West – (4) Houston vs. (5) Jazz

I don’t expect every game to be a 28 point beatdown like last night’s game one, but I think Houston gets by Utah with very little drama. The Rockets were clicking on all cylinders last night, adjusted nicely to Utah’s heavy overplay on James Harden’s left hand and found ways to score and defended Utah really well. Utah is a tough place to play for sure, but I think Houston finds a way to win at least one on the road and get by Utah.

NAIL-BITING TIME

East – (3) 76ers vs. (6) Nets

Co-host Kyle Craven said on last week’s edition of “Sports and Stuff That Matters,” that if this were 2021, look out for the Nets. He was saying this is a young, up and coming team that is trending in the right direction. He’s not wrong and game one in Phily showed that. I still can’t quite call the Nets over the 76ers, despite them stealing game one, in relatively convincing fashion. The Nets are strong where Philly is weak and that is the Nets guards ability to score (Russell, Harris, Culver and Dinwiddie) and Philly has been yielding big scoring nights to guards all year. That said, when nearly all your points come from your backcourt players, like Brooklyn’s did in game one, I don’t quite think that is the recipe for winning four times in seven games against the same team. Philly is not without problems and weaknesses, but I still think they advance past Brooklyn, but don’t be surprised to see a long series.

UPSET-ALERT = HIGH!

West – (2) Nuggets vs. (7) Spurs

This version of the Spurs may not be a threat to win it all but they are still the Spurs. They have LeMarcus Aldridge, Demar Derozan and they still have Greg Popovich. The Spurs did a great job of limiting Jokic to nine field goal attempts in game one and had enough guys step up in key moments in classic Spurs’ fashion to steal game one on the road. This is a tough matchup for a really good, but inexperienced in terms of the post-season, Nuggets team and should be an excellent series.

West – (3) Blazers vs. (6) Thunder

This was the popular upset pick heading into the playoffs nationally (and by me) and the Blazers got a huge win in game one. Portland has lost ten straight playoff games, had been swept by Oklahoma City in this regular season and they were able to get all of those monkeys off their backs in game one. That said, it took a 39 point first quarter and a great game by Damion Lillard and CJ McCollum plus a monster afternoon by mid-season pickup Enes Kantner, and Portland was still holding on down the stretch. They played off of Russel Westbrook a little bit and it was effective, taking some of his aggressiveness away. I think this series is 2-2 after four games and will stick with my Thunder pick. That said, OKC exits game one with some injury questions. If Paul George has a bad shoulder and Russel Westbrook now has a bad ankle, it’s obviously much less likely for the Thunder to advance.

Congrats to the Virginia Cavaliers – a great champion!

That’s a wrap on the 2019 NCAA Tournament and (especially from the Sweet 16 on) it was another great tournament. We are only about 48 weeks from next year’s selection Sunday, so here’s my own version of one of those “way too early” looks at next year. I’m skipping the top 25 and jumping straight to the Big Dance; the most exciting three week stretch in sports. There are some obvious unknowns here, primarily early NBA entries which are picking up and, unfortunately, FBI investigations.

Before the field of 68 – here are the last ten bubbles that I burst: Memphis, Creighton, Arizona, Washington, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, Georgetown, UNLV, LSU

EAST REGIONAL

#1 – VIRGINIA – no seniors in the starting lineup. The champs will be back strong!

#16 – RIDER – Rider has enough back to claim the MAAC from Iona

#8 – COLORADO – Entire roster back from a competitive Pac 12 team

#9 – TEXAS – NIT championship and a strong freshman class has them dancing

#5 – PURDUE – They will miss Edwards; but they won’t fall far. Too well-coached!

#12 – VERMONT – I’m projecting the America East champs to repeat

#4 – FLORIDA – Good pieces back plus a great incoming class. Gators improving!

#13 – WESTERN KENTUCKY – Whole roster back and well-coached. C-USA champs!

#6 – VCU – They stay atop the A-10

#11 – UCONN/ARKANSAS – Huskies won’t stay down long, and Hogs have talent!

#3 – MARYLAND – Even if they lose Bruno, enough to find themselves this high

#14 – DELAWARE – Blue Hens trending upward last few years in CAA with lots back

#7 – SYRACUSE – Boeheim and co. will find their way back to the dance

#10 – IOWA – only lose one key guy and have a nice class coming back

#2 – VILLANOVA – lose two great players, but monster class joining some good pieces

#15 – ARMY – Army breaks through and wins the Patriot with experienced team

SOUTH REGIONAL

#1 – KENTUCKY – You know the drill; out with the (young) old, in with the new

#16 – HIGH POINT – Big South champs, coached by Tubby Smith!

#8 – TEMPLE – Entire roster back from this year’s tourney team

#9 – XAVIER – improved as the year went and have lots of nice pieces back

#5 – BAYLOR – Three starters return from a quality team

#12 – HARVARD – One of best recruiting hauls in league history joins a good team

#4 – LOUISVILLE – Year one of the Mack era went well; year two will go better

#13 – OAKLAND – Experienced Grizzly team climbs back to top of Horizon

#6 – SETON HALL – Talent + Toughness + Athleticism + Experience

#11 – DAYTON/BYU – Home game play-in game for the Flyers vs. a quality BYU squad

#3 – HOUSTON – Lose two studs, but this is a program and not a team

#14 – EASTERN ILLINOIS – New OVC champ with Ja gone and Belmont losing guys

#7 – UTAH STATE – Lots of great pieces back; could be a very high win team

#10 – ST. MARY’S – Not enough to unseat the Zags, but winning continues here

#2 – MICHIGAN STATE – Never surprised to see them on a 1 or 2 line, are you?

#15 – NORTH FLORIDA – Don’t count out Liberty again, but NF has a lot back

MIDWEST REGIONAL

#1 – MICHIGAN – They may lose a guy to the pros yet, but good team returning in Ann Arbor any way you slice it.

#16 – GRAMBLING/CENTRAL ARKANSAS – The SWAC always shows up in the First Four and I’m calling Scottie Pippen’s alma mater to the dance.

#8 – CINCINNATI – New coach and new pieces, but the core is there for the Bearcats to keep dancing.

#9 – NOTRE DAME – This was Coach Brey’s youngest team ever. They are all back and will be better and back in the dance.

#5 – TEXAS TECH – They do lose a lot, but we said the same thing last year!

#12 – BOWLING GREEN – They knocked hard this year and benefit by Buffalo being depleted.

#4 – OREGON – Almost everyone back from one of the hottest teams in the country down the stretch

#13 – UCSB – They could be neck and neck with UC Irvine all year

#6 – AUBURN – The Tigers will be in the mix in the SEC again

#11 – USC – Returnees plus a good recruiting haul could find them in the dance

#3 – NORTH CAROLINA – They will be replacing a lot of key pieces, but the cupboard is not bare

#14 – EAST TENNESSEE ST – This year’s 4th Place SoCon finisher has everyone back

#7 – OHIO STATE – Holtmann’s best recruiting class helps the Buckeyes stay out of bubble trouble

#10 – DAVIDSON – A familiar face with their whole roster back could find themselves in as an at-large or an A10 bid stealer.

#2 – KANSAS – Despite losing Lawson, the Jayhawks will climb back to the top of the Big 12.

#15 – TEXAS ARLINGTON – They are in a spot to climb to the top of the Sun Belt

WEST REGIONAL

#1 DUKE – Lots of talent leaving, lots of talent back, lots of talent coming; I have them headed west as the lowest one seed

#16 – SACRED HEART/SAVANNAH STATE – This feels like a First Four game.

#8 – TENNESSEE – Replacing a ton of talent, a step back seems inevitable, but not a disappearing act

#9 – WEST VIRGINIA – Coach Huggins and WV took their lumps this year and will be better for it next year.

#5 – ARIZONA STATE – The Sun Devils have a talented and athletic core in place

#12 – NORTHERN IOWA – The Valley is wide open next year and Northern Iowa has their whole roster back

#4 – TCU – Jamie Dixon and the frogs take a major step forward

#13 – GRAND CANYON – Thunder Dan Majerle takes Grand Canyon to the dance out of the WAC

#6 – TEXAS A&M – Good coach meets good players – Big dance for the Aggies

#11 – INDIANA – Hoosiers were competitive this year and get over the hump in enough games next year to dance

#3 – MARQUETTE – Loaded with talent especially if Howard is back!

#14 – NORTH DAKOTA STATE – They danced this year and they can avoid the First Four with what they have back next year

#7 – UCLA – They have their entire team back and a new coach and excitement. There’s enough to dance

#10 – NC STATE – Still in the mix for a bid like they often are

#2 – GONZAGA – Gonzaga will be right in the mix on the national scene again, even if they lose a guy to the NBA

#15 – NORTHERN COLORADO – enough pieces to overtake a Montana team that loses a lot in the Big Sky.

What an exciting finish to the women’s national title game we ended up with last night; two heavyweight teams and programs both finding ways to get baskets and stops to ultimately give themselves a chance to win it all. The Notre Dame fan and alum in me is heart-broken for the Irish. What a chapter that was added to Notre Dame’s Arike Ogunbowale’s story. She was terrific en route to 31 points and then obviously missed a free throw that would have tied the game and most likely sent it to overtime. That’s a total heart-breaker for her, no doubt, but this is the same young lady whose big shots lifted the Lady Irish to wins in last year’s semis and national championships. If not for Ms. Ogunbowale, there is one less national championship banner hanging in the Joyce Center in South Bend. I am sure it will take a while for her to get over the late-game disappointment last night, but I hope she does because she has been a real treat to watch and cheer for. I can lament the Irish loss all I want, but it would have been an even bigger heart-breaker for Baylor to lose had it ended that way. They had played great and been in control most of the night before the injury to Lauren Cox (who had 21 and 11 rebounds against Oregon on Friday night; the Bears might not have advanced without her) undoubtedly changed the complexion and flow of this game. The Lady Bears did enough to win it in the end and Chloe Jackson was phenomenal. Geno Auriemma gets a lot of the attention on the women’s side, and rightfully so, but this game featured two women’s coaching giants going toe-to-toe with Baylor’s Kim Mulkey and Notre Dame’s Muffet McGraw. Congrats to Baylor. To say they are a deserving champion is a major understatement.

Virginia and Texas Tech are going head-to-head tonight at 9:20 (take a nap this afternoon so you can stay up) for the men’s crown. It will be the first title in school history for either program and the first title ever for two great, defensive-minded head coaches, Chris Beard of Texas Tech and Tony Bennett of Virginia. I am picking Virginia. I can break this down any which way I want, and I just can’t imagine it not being a competitive game that isn’t truly decided until the final two minutes. In the end, I think Virginia’s guards offer a little more depth and versatility in the ways they can score (despite Texas Tech having the single best player on the floor in Jarrett Culver, in my opinion) and I think Virginia finds a way to score a few more points. Virginia 65, Texas Tech 60. I’m excited to watch this one. Within the parameters of their half court man defense, these teams have some major philosophical differences with where they want to force the ball and what they are willing to give up and what they prioritize stopping. They are both great at what they do on the defensive end and it’s a reminder that if there was only one way to do it right, all teams would do it that way. These two teams are great at sticking with the core and foundations of their defense while making minor adjustments by game and within a game. They’ve been well-coached and drilled from day one of the season back in October and are locked into the scouting report each possession. Whoever wins is a worthy national champion for sure!

Due to the title game, I will not be recording Sports and Stuff That Matters Tonight, but will be joined by Kyle Craven for this week’s episode tomorrow night. I will get it posted late Tuesday night and will make the content and discussion relevant for the whole week, so check it out if you get a chance. We will close the book on the NCAA tourney, hit on some other college basketball topics as the off-season begins, preview and predict the most open NBA playoffs in several years, talk some MLB and a little bit of off-season football, touch on this week’s Masters and have our weekly segments as well as some non-sports material from the week that caught our eyes.

It is an exciting and intriguing foursome of teams that not a lot of people saw coming that have converged on the Twin Cities. I love the experience of the four teams; most likely no “one and done” players on any of the four. I love the fact that some of the nation’s best defensive teams have advanced deeper than some of the nation’s best offensive teams; Texas Tech, Virginia and Michigan State have three of the top 20 defenses in the country and Auburn’s is much improved as the season has gone on. I also love the four totally different trajectories that these programs have been on over the past twenty years to end up where they are this weekend. Michigan State is a true blue blood in this generation and has been to more final fours since 1999 than any program not named Duke. They are a player every March. Virginia has been consistently good for the better part of this decade and is shaking the unenviable labels of “best program to not make the Final Four” and “worst defeat in NCAA tourney history” at the same time. Texas Tech has battled in the shadows of larger name programs in their own state for years and has broken through with an under-the-radar great coach, Chris Beard, and a group of players that never received as much hype coming out of high school (or wherever their last stop before Lubbock was). A down-trodden Auburn program took a chance on Bruce Pearl, proven on the court but fresh off NCAA violations and still under a show clause, and it has paid the ultimate dividends in just five years. Many college basketball fans might yawn at this group of teams, longing for more household names, but these are four worthy teams and all four have a chance to cut down the nets in Minneapolis on Monday night. Here is why they can, and also why they might not.

Why Each Team Has a Real Shot To Win It All:

Virginia – Guard play and defense. Virginia has been a defensive juggernaut ever since Tony Bennett signed his first contract in Charlottesville. Those just tuning in might be hearing more about Texas Tech’s defense (and rightfully so) but Virginia is right up there with the nation’s elite this year again. They get back, they get set and they really make it tough to score inside of fifteen feet. The biggest difference in this year’s Virginia team is their offensive fire-power. The guard trio of Hunter, Guy and Jerome is as dynamic as it gets and it is nearly impossible to limit them all on a given night. Throw Mamadi Diakite in there on both ends of the floor and it is as well-rounded of a team as Tony Bennett has had.

Michigan State – Toughness and balance. Even though Tom Izzo only has one national title ring, and that was 19 years ago, it is a Tom Izzo-coached team in March. Has any coach gotten more out of his talent in March than Izzo over the past twenty years? This particular Michigan State team has an obvious alpha dog in Cassius Winston and possesses great balance and versatility after that. Despite their injuries, they have the ability to defend really well, especially on the interior and while they might lack explosiveness and star-power after Winston on offense, they minimize mistakes and maximize quality possessions.

Texas Tech – The best defense and the best player in the the Final Four. Texas Tech has limited opponents to 57 points per game in this tournament and while not the most explosive team on the offensive end of the floor, they do possess the most explosive player in Jarrett Culver, a do-it-all guard. While their backcourt trio is not as impressive as Virginia’s, he is complimented with lights-out shooter David Morretti and the steady Matt Mooney. Throw Tariq Evans inside and you will start to see a lot of similarities between Texas Tech and Virginia.

Auburn – Guard play and pace. Bryce Brown and Jared Harper are terrific and fit Bruce Pearl’s fast-paced, yet disciplined, style of play extremely well. Auburn has shot and made more threes, by far, than any of the other three teams. That typically isn’t the recipe for success in March Madness or in an oversized stadium that the Final Four gets played in, but it’s gotten them this far. This is also a team with a high level of confidence and takes on their coach’s free-spirited, no pressure approach. They are playing with house money and I am sure Bruce Pearl has done a great job of taking the pressure off of them, given they are the lowest remaining seed.

Why Each Team Could Struggle To Win Two More Games

Virginia – Transition Defense and a Bad Offensive Night. There is no glaring weakness on this Virginia team. They are 33-3 and two of the three losses are to a full-strength Duke team so it’s not like there’s an obvious recipe on how to beat them. That said, teams have had a tad bit more success against them in transition this year than previous year’s and that’s something Auburn could try to exploit. Auburn will hunt threes in transition against Virginia because it is so difficult to find good looks in the half court against them. On offense, because Virginia’s three leading scorers are guards, they can have bad nights, especially against a defense like Texas Tech, but this Virginia team has shown the ability to win when their offense isn’t clicking for years.

Michigan State – Offensive Efficiency and Lack of Depth. Michigan State’s path to the title could potentially consist of the two most elite defenses in the country in Texas Tech and Virginia. If Cassius Winston struggles (or is just limited against great team defense), can Michigan State score enough points to win a game this weekend? This Michigan State team is also more turnover prone than most previous versions of Sparty. They defeated the most talented team in the country in Duke, but Duke’s defense is not as stingy as what they will see this weekend. Also, Michigan State is essentially only seven deep as they have navigated injuries all year. Does that finally catch up to them?

Texas Tech – Defensive Rebounding and Interior Scoring. Finding a weakness with Texas Tech’s defense is really difficult, but I do think they might be a little vulnerable to giving up offensive rebounds against Michigan State, especially. Michigan State will have a hard time scoring against Texas Tech’s set defense, so Tech must make them one and done. On the other end of the floor, Texas Tech does rely on Culver and his backcourt running mates to do the lion’s share of the scoring, especially recently (51 of 63 vs. Michigan and 62 of 75 vs. Gonzaga came from guards). There’s a chance they could need more from their frontcourt to win two this weekend.

Auburn – Defense and Three Point Dependency. If you are Auburn, you must ride the horse that got you to the Final Four and that is the aggressive, free-playing ways of Bryce Brown and Jared Harper. Is that dependency on the three point shot, when playing against the best defenses you have seen all year that will limit your truly clean looks, and playing in an oversized stadium that is typically not conducive for shooting the long ball going to catch up with them? On the other end of the floor, Auburn is the worst defensive team remaining and are really thin on the inside since the injury to Chuma Okeke in the Sweet 16. Factor in the fact that Brown and Harper are inevitably going to have to spend some time on Virginia’s best players, who are also guards, and is Auburn up against it on defense too much to keep advancing?

SATURDAY PREDICTION’S

Virginia – I just think this Virginia team is too well-rounded and is a tough matchup for Auburn because it is strength against strength in the backcourt, with Virginia just being a little better in other aspects of the game. Brown and Harper have a hard time getting anything going in transition and have a hard time finding clean looks in the half court and Virginia grinds out a 10 point win.

Texas Tech – I picked Michigan State on the podcast Monday, and I’m changing my mind today (so I can say I was right either way!). As this game gets closer, I just think Texas Tech is a little too much. I don’t want to pick against Tom Izzo, the best coach of the four. I don’t want to pick against Jarrett Culver, the best player remaining. I think the Texas Tech defense shines like they have done all year and Texas Tech wins a low-scoring game that is still in the balance with two minutes to go. Give me the Red Raiders by two.

So, I’ve got Virginia playing Texas Tech on Monday night for the title. If my Elite 8 predictions are any indication, go put some money on Auburn and Michigan State!